Country snapshot · Southern Africa

South Africa

Export rules: PartialData as of 10 October 2026
3,287.6MW
Solar added in 2026 (Ember estimate, all segments)1N1,N2
3,287.6 MW (3.3 GW)
+20%
Change on 20251
2025: 2,732.0 MW (Ember estimate)
90.2%
Access to electricity, 20242N3
6.27million
People without electricity, 2024 (DERCA calculation)2N3

Solar added each year

Ember estimates of all solar (utility-scale, distributed and off-grid), MW. 2026 is Ember’s full-year estimate.

South Africa: solar added per year, 2023–2026, MW (Ember estimates)2023: 3,318.0 MW; 2024: 1,690.2 MW; 2025: 2,732.0 MW; 2026 estimate: 3,287.6 MW3,318.020231,690.220242,732.020253,287.62026E
South Africa: solar added per year, 2023–2026, MW (Ember estimates)2023: 3,318.0 MW; 2024: 1,690.2 MW; 2025: 2,732.0 MW; 2026 estimate: 3,287.6 MW3,318.020231,690.220242,732.020253,287.62026E
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Solar added per year, MW
YearMWBasis
20233,318.0Ember estimate
20241,690.2Ember estimate
20252,732.0Ember estimate
2026E3,287.6Ember estimate, full year

18.8% of Africa’s estimated 2026 solar additions (3,287.6 of 17,449.4 MW).1

Who has electricity

Share of people with access to electricity, 2024: rural and urban.

South Africa: access to electricity, rural vs urban, 2024Rural 86.3%, urban 92.4%, national 90.2%.National 90.2%Rural 86.3%Urban 92.4%0%25%50%75%100%
South Africa: access to electricity, rural vs urban, 2024Rural 86.3%, urban 92.4%, national 90.2%.National 90.2%Rural 86.3%Urban 92.4%0%50%100%
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Access to electricity, 2024
AreaAccessYear
Rural86.3%2024
Urban92.4%2024
National90.2%2024
Rural 86.3%Urban 92.4%Without electricity 6.27m (DERCA calculation)

World Bank WDI, 2024.2

How reliable is the grid for business?

Firms experiencing electrical outages (2020 survey), compared with Sub-Saharan Africa and the world.3,4N4

South Africa: share of firms experiencing electrical outagesSouth Africa 92.0% (2020 survey); Sub-Saharan Africa 72.4%; World 47.5% (2025).South Africa (2020)92.0%Sub-Saharan Africa72.4%World47.5%
South Africa: share of firms experiencing electrical outagesSouth Africa 92.0% (2020 survey); Sub-Saharan Africa 72.4%; World 47.5% (2025).South Africa(2020)92.0%Sub-SaharanAfrica72.4%World47.5%

92.0% (2020 survey) · Sub-Saharan Africa 72.4% · World 47.5% (2025)

The rules for small-scale generationN5

Export rules: Partial5–16

Regulator
NERSA
Main utility
Eskom and municipal distributors
CrossBoundary Energy regulatory stage5N6
Stage 2 (entering)
Stage 0
Centralised controlStage 1
Cautious co-existenceStage 2
Directed benefitsStage 3
Early market management
Export rulesMunicipal schemes; Eskom net-billing policy Rev 2 (Jul 2026)Show detail

Municipal schemes; Eskom net-billing policy Rev 2 (Jul 2026)

Report data register: C91,C92,D31,D47,D49,D50
How exports are creditedVaries by distributor; national export rate not setShow detail

Varies by distributor; national export rate not set

Report data register: C91,C92,D31,D47,D49,D50
Size limits and licensing<=100 kW register with distributor; larger with NERSAShow detail

<=100 kW register with distributor; larger with NERSA

Report data register: C91,C92,D31,D47,D49,D50
Mini-grid rulesNot reviewed in this edition.Show detail

Not reviewed in this edition.

Report data register: C91,C92,D31,D47,D49,D50;D31,D47,D50
Market access beyond the utilityWheeling; SAWEM delayedShow detail

Wheeling; SAWEM delayed

Report data register: C91,C92,D31,D47,D49,D50
Aggregation / VPP rulesNone (no definition)Show detail

None (no definition)

Report data register: C91,C92,D31,D47,D49,D50

“None found” means we could not locate a rule in public sources reviewed to 10 October 2026, not that one cannot exist.

Recent developments

Dated developments, 2024–2026.

  1. Jul 2026

    Eskom Wheeling and Net-billing Policy Rev 2 published.12

  2. 2026

    South African Wholesale Electricity Market launch moved from 1 Apr 2026 to Q3 2026.11

  3. mid-2026

    Rooftop solar estimated at 8.3 GW, up from 2.33 GW in Oct 2022 (Eskom transmission company).9

The full report

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The full analysis, with 17 exhibits on the boom, the data gap, the economics and the four building blocks, is in Africa’s Invisible Grid.

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