Country snapshot · West Africa

Nigeria

Export rules: YesData as of 10 October 2026
1,704.4MW
Solar added in 2026 (Ember estimate, all segments)1N1,N2
1,704.4 MW (1.7 GW)
+3%
Change on 20251
2025: 1,653.7 MW (Ember estimate)
62.5%
Access to electricity, 20242N3
87.25million
People without electricity, 2024 (DERCA calculation)2N3

Solar added each year

Ember estimates of all solar (utility-scale, distributed and off-grid), MW. 2026 is Ember’s full-year estimate.

Nigeria: solar added per year, 2023–2026, MW (Ember estimates)2023: 436.4 MW; 2024: 1,018.3 MW; 2025: 1,653.7 MW; 2026 estimate: 1,704.4 MW436.420231,018.320241,653.720251,704.42026E
Nigeria: solar added per year, 2023–2026, MW (Ember estimates)2023: 436.4 MW; 2024: 1,018.3 MW; 2025: 1,653.7 MW; 2026 estimate: 1,704.4 MW436.420231,018.320241,653.720251,704.42026E
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Solar added per year, MW
YearMWBasis
2023436.4Ember estimate
20241,018.3Ember estimate
20251,653.7Ember estimate
2026E1,704.4Ember estimate, full year

9.8% of Africa’s estimated 2026 solar additions (1,704.4 of 17,449.4 MW).1

Who has electricity

Share of people with access to electricity, 2024: rural and urban.

Nigeria: access to electricity, rural vs urban, 2024Rural 23.5%, urban 85.5%, national 62.5%.National 62.5%Rural 23.5%Urban 85.5%0%25%50%75%100%
Nigeria: access to electricity, rural vs urban, 2024Rural 23.5%, urban 85.5%, national 62.5%.National 62.5%Rural 23.5%Urban 85.5%0%50%100%
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Access to electricity, 2024
AreaAccessYear
Rural23.5%2024
Urban85.5%2024
National62.5%2024
Rural 23.5%Urban 85.5%Without electricity 87.25m (DERCA calculation)

World Bank WDI, 2024.2

How reliable is the grid for business?

Firms experiencing electrical outages (2025 survey), compared with Sub-Saharan Africa and the world.3,4N4

Nigeria: share of firms experiencing electrical outagesNigeria 82.5% (2025 survey); Sub-Saharan Africa 72.4%; World 47.5% (2025).Nigeria (2025)82.5%Sub-Saharan Africa72.4%World47.5%
Nigeria: share of firms experiencing electrical outagesNigeria 82.5% (2025 survey); Sub-Saharan Africa 72.4%; World 47.5% (2025).Nigeria (2025)82.5%Sub-SaharanAfrica72.4%World47.5%

82.5% (2025 survey) · Sub-Saharan Africa 72.4% · World 47.5% (2025)

The rules for small-scale generationN5

Export rules: Yes4–14

Regulator
NERC (federal) and state regulators
Main utility
Distribution companies (DisCos)
Export rulesNet Billing Regulations (Jun 2026)Show detail

Net Billing Regulations (Jun 2026)

Report data register: C15-C24,C27
How exports are creditedAvoided cost x 0.55/0.75; no cashShow detail

Avoided cost x 0.55/0.75; no cash

Report data register: C15-C24,C27
Size limits and licensing50 kWp-1.5 MWpShow detail

50 kWp-1.5 MWp

Report data register: C15-C24,C27
Mini-grid rulesMini-Grid Regulations 2026: isolated up to 5 MW, interconnected up to 10 MW; above 100 kW needs a NERC permit.Show detail

Mini-Grid Regulations 2026: isolated up to 5 MW, interconnected up to 10 MW; above 100 kW needs a NERC permit.

Report data register: C15-C24,C27;C21,C22
Market access beyond the utility15 states regulate own marketsShow detail

15 states regulate own markets

Report data register: C15-C24,C27
Aggregation / VPP rulesNone foundShow detail

None found

Report data register: C15-C24,C27

“None found” means we could not locate a rule in public sources reviewed to 10 October 2026, not that one cannot exist.

Recent developments

Dated developments, 2024–2026.

  1. Jun 2026

    NERC Net Billing Regulations issued.11

  2. May 2026

    15 states regulate their own electricity markets under the Electricity Act 2023.12

  3. Dec 2025

    57.27% of customers metered (NERC factsheet; metered, not necessarily smart).9

The full report

This is a snapshot. The full story is in Africa’s Invisible Grid.

The full analysis, with 17 exhibits on the boom, the data gap, the economics and the four building blocks, is in Africa’s Invisible Grid.

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